By Sharon Udasin & Sual Elbein
August 26, 2022
Source: The Hill
Photo Source: Unsplash, Jakub K. Climate change is accelerating the occurrence of mass fish die-offs in U.S. lakes — posing a significant threat to global food supplies, a new study has found.
So-called “fish kills” — in which large numbers of fish die suddenly — could become six times more common by the end of the century, according to the study, published this week in Limnology and Oceanography.
After studying more than 500 past summer die-offs in Minnesota and Wisconsin, researchers from the University of Arkansas devised an air and water temperature-based model to forecast the frequency of future such kills.
Their models — which looked at a severe climate change scenario — predicted an approximately sixfold increase in fish kills by 2100 based on water temperature projections, while showing a 34-fold surge in mortality rates based on air temperature projections.
This means that if there were eight such incidents per year in the U.S. today, there would be 41 annually by the end of the century based on water temperature estimates, co-author Simon Tye said in a statement, describing projections as “more realistic” than the air-based estimates.
Climate change is a particular threat because it is likely to turn normal high summer temperatures into occasional dangerous spikes — raising the chance of a lethal heat event, Tye noted.
Since fish are in many cases both predators and prey, the death of large numbers of fish can rapidly destabilize aquatic ecosystems, leading to sudden crises for species dependent on eating fish — including humans.
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