By Carly Severn
July 11, 2024
Updated July 23, 2024
Source: KQed
Photo / Image Source: Unsplash,
In 2023, “late June is when we started to see a summer increase,” said Wastewater SCAN’s Bidwell — but this 2024 swell started several weeks earlier than that.
It’s undoubtedly become harder in 2024 to materially track COVID-19 levels in a certain area. As of May 1, the CDC no longer requires hospitals nationwide to report the number of patients admitted with COVID-19. This had been one of the remaining indicators of rising COVID-19 levels in an area, along with PCR tests. Now, health officials must rely on a combination of wastewater data and hospital deaths of patients with COVID-19.
According to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH), the state’s seven-day test positivity rate — the average percentage of people each week who get a positive diagnostic test result from a lab after taking a PCR test — has kept rising since April 27 (from 1.9% to 12.8%, with the last available data from July 15).
However, since this data doesn’t include at-home antigen testing, it doesn’t represent the full picture of COVID-19 positivity around the state.
“Of course, it’s hard to use wastewater to tell you how many people that represents,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), of the recent observed rise in sewage. “But nevertheless, the trend is important.”
As for why the Bay Area could now be seeing a summer rise in COVID-19 wastewater levels over a month earlier than it did in 2023, Chin-Hong said a big factor is our collective waning immunity against the virus.
“One year ago, last year, many more people had gotten additional vaccines,” he said. “They had additional immunity that was more recent.”
But in 2024, “we only have about 22% or so of Americans vaccinated” nationally, Chin-Hong said. In California, only 14.9% of people statewide are up-to-date on their COVID-19 vaccines. So if someone hasn’t been infected with COVID-19 recently and they haven’t gotten the latest vaccine, they’re left extra-vulnerable to rising COVID-19 levels in their
community.
How much are new COVID variants driving this rise?
You might hear about new COVID-19 variants informally called “FLiRT”: KP.1.1, KP.2 and KP.3.
These latest omicron descendants, nicknamed for the letters used for their mutations, have risen in prominence recently around the country, overtaking the previous leading variant, JN.1 — the one that “was ruling the roost for a lot of the winter and spring,” Chin-Hong said. Now, KP.3 has become the most dominant strain nationwide.
In the Bay Area, WastewaterSCAN’s Bidwell said that KP.2 is still the dominant variant in the three Bay Area wastewater sites where the Stanford team sequenced this data on specific variants.
The new variants matter because each new one brought increased transmissibility during the pandemic. This means that although much of the general population will not get particularly sick with these new COVID-19 variants when they become dominant, there will still be higher-risk groups that will get seriously ill, Chin-Hong said.
“Maybe that’s the fact of life, but my point is: It shouldn’t be the fact of life because we have so many tools” to reduce COVID-19 spread and treat infectious people, Chin-Hong said.
The CDC has also stated that based on current data, “there are no indicators that KP.2 would cause more severe illness than other strains.”
As for the reformulated seasonal COVID-19 vaccine, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommended on June 5 that the new, updated COVID-19 vaccine that will be offered in the fall should in fact be based on the JN.1 variant.
Who is the most at risk for COVID right now?
“I’m not worried about the general population because people have seen it so many times already,” Chin-Hong said. “The majority of folks [are] going to be OK.”
But “I’m worried about the most vulnerable,” he said, pointing to low vaccination rates among people age 65 and older — despite an extra COVID-19 vaccine dose being made available to this age group back in February because of their heightened risk levels. Read more about finding an additional COVID-19 vaccine if you’re 65 or older.
While it may feel confusing and frustrating — or like a personal step backward — to still think about COVID-19 precautions in 2024, that’s understandable. But there are actions you can take in response to a rise in COVID-19 numbers to protect the health of you and your loved ones, stop community spread among the most high-risk people and reduce the disruption that a COVID-19 infection in your household can bring to your lives, your work and much-anticipated summer travel plans.
Got COVID (Again)? Here's What the CDC Says About 2024 Isolation Guidelines
During a rise in COVID-19 levels locally, this might include bringing a well-fitting N95 mask along to indoor spaces that you know could be crowded, like the grocery store or BART during rush hour. Or, if you’re hosting people indoors in your home, ensure the space has good ventilation by taking measures like opening windows. If the weather allows, you might also consider favoring outdoor hangouts and meetups with friends and family at this current time.
And if you’re at higher risk for serious illness or hospitalization from COVID-19, it’s an especially good idea to take extra precautions against the virus during a rise in COVID-19 locally. These groups can include older people, immunocompromised and disabled folks.
It also includes people who aren’t up-to-date on their COVID-19 vaccines, so if you haven’t already gotten the latest vaccine, you can still find a free COVID-19 shot near you.
One more reason you might consider being extra cautious about COVID-19 right now is if you’ve got upcoming travel plans. Even if your symptoms are mild, a COVID-19 infection can require isolation from other people for well over a week. And you can double that timeline if you get a rebound (i.e., second) infection, which is surprisingly common even in people who don’t take the antiviral treatment Paxlovid.
Have you taken the vaccine? Were you mandated to? By whom?
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