COVID-19 May Follow a Different Seasonal Pattern Than Influenza, RSV
- Shidonna Raven
- Jul 20
- 2 min read
Fact checked by: Maggie L. Shaw
June 29, 2026
Source: AJMC
Photo / Image Source: Unsplash,
Key Takeaways
Wastewater signals suggest increasing SARS-CoV-2 circulation despite low national baselines, reinforcing surveillance as an early indicator rather than a definitive predictor of near-term clinical burden.
Epidemiologic analyses have identified three recurring annual COVID-19 rises in the US, with a winter peak followed by smaller spring and mid-to-late summer increases.
New wastewater data and prior research suggest COVID-19 may follow recurring spring and summer transmission patterns, unlike influenza and RSV.
Researchers have observed an uptick in SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater, alongside slight increases in other respiratory viruses, as temperatures rise, according to the most recent report from BioBot, a wastewater intelligence platform.1
Although overall respiratory virus activity remains low nationwide, the increase aligns with previous research suggesting that COVID-19 transmission can rise during the spring and summer months, particularly in the southern US. These observations parallel recent trends reported by the CDC, which indicate that COVID-19 activity is growing or likely to grow in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.2
Current SARS-CoV-2 wastewater levels remain low nationally, and the CDC does not predict a summer surge. However, officials note that future activity could increase if a substantially immune-evasive variant were to emerge. Such scenarios reinforce the importance of continued surveillance rather than serving as forecasts of an imminent wave.3
Unlike influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which generally follow predictable fall and winter seasonal patterns, SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated a more variable transmission pattern since the beginning of the pandemic. Researchers attribute these differences to a combination of waning population immunity, the emergence of new variants, regional climate differences, and human behavior rather than temperature alone.
One study examining COVID-19 incidence across the US identified 3 recurring annual increases in cases: a primary peak during the early- to mid-winter months followed by 2 smaller waves occurring in the spring and again during mid- to late summer.4 During both the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 respiratory seasons, spring activity peaked around mid- to late April, while the second increase occurred between late July and August.4
In April 2026, reports of the BA.3.2 SARS-CoV-2 lineage, commonly referred to as the Cicada variant, also increased, accompanied by greater detection in wastewater surveillance. Although evidence regarding the variant's transmissibility remains limited, experts note that BA.3.2 contains more than 70 mutations, several of which may contribute to immune evasion rather than inherently increasing transmissibility.5 Continued monitoring will be necessary to determine whether the variant alters seasonal transmission patterns.
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