Children’s Vulnerability to Environmental Exposures: Future

Oct 14m 2010

Source: NIH

National Library of Medicine

National Center for Biotechnology Information

Photo Source: Unsplash

Future projections of children’s health impacts from climate change

Estimating the future burden of climate-related disease impacts on children is complex. Future projections should take into account not only local climate-related effects but also other significant environmental changes such as stratospheric ozone depletion, accelerating loss of biodiversity, and alterations in elemental cycles such as the nitrogen cycle (McMichael 2001b). Although in some geographic areas and for some diseases the effects of climate change may be beneficial, overall global climate change is projected to increase the global burden of disease (Hitz and Smith 2004).

McMichael et al. (2004) estimated RRs for exposures to thermal extremes and weather disasters (deaths and injuries associated with floods), distribution and incidence of malaria, incidence of diarrhea, and malnutrition (via effects on yields of agricultural crops) in 2030 for each of the WHO subregions. Overall, extreme weather accounted for the largest proportional RR change (RRs for inland floods up to 18.5) but diarrheal disease (RRs up to 1.1) and malaria (RRs up to 1.83) accounted for the larger burden of disease using unmitigated emissions scenarios. Malnutrition RR projections varied highly by world region. These are not age-stratified assessments. Despite projections of increased yields in some more temperate regions of the world, sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have increased food insecurity. By the 2080s, overall yield changes are projected to result in an additional 70 million hungry people globally, 40% more than expected (McMichael 2001b). These impacts would perpetuate a disproportionate burden of malnutrition on children.

Many countries with the highest rates of childhood disease and death are undergoing demographic transitions toward greater industrial development. However, according to the 2002 World Health Report (WHO 2002b), even after accounting for such transition, underweight is still expected to be in the top five causes of global DALYs in the year 2020, thus reflecting an ongoing vulnerability to climatic-induced changes in food security in many poor countries. The climate health research community will be producing updated and age-stratified projections in the near future. Such projections will help inform public health interventions.

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