By Al Tompkins
December 29, 2022
Source: Poynter
Photo Source: Unsplash, Alex Padurariu
A person clears snow as a winter storm rolls through western New York on Dec. 24 in Amherst N.Y. The storm knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses over the weekend as it swept across the United States. It is tempting to blame climate change for any anomaly in the weather. Some of the blame is justified – like long droughts and extraordinary rainstorms – but winter storms do not fit neatly in the climate change narrative. The researchers at Climate Central say that winter temperatures in the United States have increased by more than 3 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 50 years and that northern areas of the U.S. have warmed the fastest. What does that mean in regard to extreme winter weather? There is a lot of debate about this but, as The New York Times explained:
Some scientists say that rapid warming of the Arctic — it has warmed nearly four times faster than other regions — is responsible. As the Arctic warms, they say, the temperature difference between the pole and the tropics lessens. That leads to weakening of the high-altitude winds called the polar jet stream. which becomes more sinuous, or wavier, and allows the polar vortex to spread southward.
Climate Central analyzed temperature data from 238 U.S. locations to see how much winters have warmed since 1970. The group reports that winter is the fastest warming season for 75% of 238 U.S. locations.
• About 97% (232) of locations had an increase in average winter temperatures since 1970. • The average winter warming across the 238 locations from 1970 to 2022 was 3.3°F. • Average winter temperatures warmed by 2°F or more in about 87% (207) of locations. • Winter has warmed the most in northern locations across the Great Lakes and Northeast. • The top-five warming winters since 1970 were experienced by Burlington, Vt. (7.1°F), Milwaukee, Wis. (6.1°F), Chattanooga, Tenn. (6.1°F), Concord, N.H. (6.0°F), and Green Bay, Wis. (5.7°F). • From 1970 to 2021, 97% of 244 U.S. locations analyzed have experienced shrinking winter cold snaps. • Cold snaps shrank by 6 days on average across all 244 stations since 1970. Climate Central says warmer winters produce many changes including: • Water supplies: Warmer winters can lead to declining mountain snowpack — a critical source of spring meltwater that refills reservoirs, irrigates crops, and helps meet peak water demand during summer. • Energy use in homes: Warming winters have contributed to decreasing trends in heating degree days and residential natural gas use since 1974. But winter energy savings may be offset by increased cooling demand and a near-doubling of summer residential electricity use since 1973. • Fruit yields: Many high-value fruit crops require a minimum number of winter chill hours. Warmer, shorter winters mean shorter chill periods, which could lead to lower fruit yields. • Disease-carrying pests: Cold winters can keep the populations of disease-carrying pests like mosquitoes and ticks in check. But warmer, shorter winters can worsen pest-related health risks. • Growing season length: Warmer, shorter winters mean the earlier arrival of spring and later onset of fall frost. Resulting longer growing seasons can benefit certain crops, but can also boost the growth of weeds and pests, increase overall irrigation demands, and shift the range of cultivated and wild plant and animal species. • Snow and ice: Warming winters can affect the timing, location, and amount of snowfall and the coverage and duration of lake ice—with a range of impacts for people, ecosystems, and water supplies in different regions of the U.S. • Winter recreation: The multi-billion dollar winter recreation industry, which includes skiing, ice fishing, and snowmobiling, could take an economic hit because of rising temperatures and reduced snow and ice accumulation.
Warm air holds more moisture than cold air so, generally, we would expect more winter precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow as the climate warms.
When it is cold enough for snow rather than rain, however — as it was in many places during the recent storm — more snow can fall. That’s because air can hold more moisture when it’s warmer. It’s the cold-weather version of why rainfall is becoming more extreme in many parts of the world.
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