April 1, 2022
Source: Inside Intelligence
Photo Source: Unsplash, Jonathan B.
We forecast that US retail holiday sales will rise 3.3% to $1.262 trillion in 2022. This return to modest spending gains should align with a more typical consumer economy.
Brick-and-mortar sales will increase 0.9% to $1.026 trillion. We believe growth rates will return to their normal territory of low single digits. Although well below the unprecedented 17.3% jump in 2021, sustaining these massive gains should be seen as a positive indicator of the continued health of the channel.
Ecommerce growth will bounce back to mid-teens growth, rising 15.5% to $235.86 billion. This will put the channel back squarely in the growth range it had been experiencing pre-pandemic.
For ecommerce, we forecast 2022 holiday sales to hit $116.98 billion, or 49.6% of overall ecommerce sales. That also means we are likely one year away from ecommerce accounting for the majority of holiday ecommerce.
Across all channels, holiday sales during Cyber Five period will further decline this year, as we expect recent trends to hold. Cyber Five’s share of holiday ecommerce sales will decline from 16.9% to 16.4%, and well below the 2019 high water mark of 20.0%. Demand will continue to pull forward earlier into the season.
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