Hall of a chance: Among active fighters, who’s headed for Canastota? Long Shots
- Shidonna Raven
- 3 hours ago
- 4 min read
BY ERIC RASKIN
This Article has been curated by UDBN
June 19, 2025
Source: Boxing Scene
Long shots
Danny Garcia: One suspects his career is over, but he hasn’t announced that yet. The 140lbs resume is exceptional. Still, he probably needed one big win at welter, and instead fell just short against Spence, Porter and Keith Thurman.
Keith Thurman: “One Time” got a couple of those meaningful, close wins at 147 — over Garcia and Porter — but he was never quite the same after elbow and hand injuries in 2017 and 2018, and losing to a 40-year-old Pacquiao killed his momentum.
The Charlo twins: Jermall and Jermell have had distinct careers, and neither is necessarily finished, but they both cooled off in their 30s and aren’t even guaranteed to get on to the IBHOF ballot.
Erislandy Lara: Often underappreciated, never defeated decisively and still a championship-level fighter at age 42, Lara deserves consideration, but as long as fellow Cuban defector Joel Casamayor continues to languish on the ballot, it’s hard to feel optimistic about Lara.
Emanuel Navarette: The fan-friendly Mexican seemed on the right trajectory through the first Oscar Valdez fight two years ago, but questionable training habits appear to have caught up with him and he’s perhaps lucky to have gone 1-1-1 with one no-contest since.
Carlos Cuadras: A damned good fighter who couldn’t win the big one, Cuadras went 1-4 against Chocolatito, Estrada, Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez and Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, and 43-1-1 against everyone else. He’s not just a longshot; he’s an extreme longshot. But with the way HOF standards keep slowly slipping…
Adrien Broner: I know he’s nowhere close to being a hall of famer. You know he’s nowhere close to being a hall of famer. It would be nice to trust voters not to be fooled by the words “four-division champion”. But my days of trusting voters not to be fooled are long behind me.
Ryan Garcia: You’d think a 26 year old like Garcia would land in the “Too soon to tell” section, but we have a pretty clear idea already of what “KingRy” is. And what he is leans heavily into what the “F” in “IBHOF” stands for — and history says not to be 100 per cent sure that fame alone won’t get a boxer the votes he needs.
Sure shots: This one should be self-explanatory. These are fighters who could retire tomorrow and be assured of induction, or who could lose their next 10 fights in a row and then retire and still be assured of induction, such is the shine of their current credentials.
Probables: Boxers who are firmly in the mix but figure to be the subject of contentious debate the first time their names appear on the ballot. The induction standards now being what they are, they’ll likely get in eventually. But it’s far from certain, and unlikely to happen on their first try.
Long shots: These guys can’t be entirely ruled out — the likes of Vinny Paz and Michael Moorer were surely viewed as long shots at one time — but in all likelihood, they’ll spend their post-pugilism years on the outside looking in.
Too soon to tell: There are all different degrees of “too soon to tell”, but this category isn’t for the likes of Abdullah Mason, Keyshawn Davis, Moses Itauma or anyone else who has talent but hasn’t yet had anything close to a defining fight. If you’re to any degree still a prospect — and yes, sadly, one can be both a prospect and a beltholder at the same time nowadays — it’s too soon to even put you on this “too soon” list. Rather, this category is for boxers who’ve proven a thing or two at the elite level, but need to do more before we can properly debate their IBHOF worthiness.
A couple of key clarifications: First, we’re strictly looking at the modern men’s category here. So, yes, Claressa Shields, Amanda Serrano and Katie Taylor are all 100-percent guaranteed hall of famers, but that’s subject matter for a different article.
And second, we’re focusing on active fighters. If you haven’t fought in more than three years and could potentially have your name on the next ballot, like Gary Russell Jnr and Leo Santa Cruz (both “long shots” anyway), even if you’ve never officially announced your retirement, I’m skipping over you.
And if you have announced your retirement, like Lomachenko (sure shot), Sergey Kovalev (straddling the fence between probable and long shot) or Daniel Jacobs (extreme long shot), you’re not a part of this.
The one exception to that rule: Tyson Fury, because very few observers are taking his latest retirement announcement seriously.
All right, we don’t need this article running as long as the late, great Steve Smoger’s 2015 induction speech. So, enough preamble, let’s get to it.
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