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Writer's pictureShidonna Raven

How does Alvarez win this fight and how much of a chance does he have?

pound BY Mike Coppinger & Ben Baby

June 26, 2023

Source: ESPN

Photo Source: Boxing News 24


Alvarez will be installed as a solid favorite, and besides being the far more accomplished fighter, activity will be a leading factor why. Since Charlo's successful middleweight title defense against Sergiy Derevyanchenko in September 2020, he has competed only once -- against Montiel. Alvarez, on the other hand, has fought seven times in that period against some of the best fighters in the world.


Activity matters.


Alvarez should be far sharper given his recent activity and Charlo's lack thereof, but Alvarez has another obvious advantage. While Charlo might actually be the naturally bigger man, Alvarez has competed twice at 175 pounds, including against Bivol last year, and has fought at 168 pounds seven times.


Charlo is the WBC middleweight champion (despite no defenses in two years) and has never fought above 160 pounds. What Charlo undoubtedly possesses is an excellent power jab, knockout power in both hands and a patient approach in the ring. The former 154-pound titleholder has a great trainer in Ronnie Shields, who led Erislandy Lara to what many believed was a win over Alvarez in 2014 (Alvarez won a split decision with scorecards of 117-111, 115-113 and 113-115).


But Charlo will contend with easily his toughest opponent yet. Charlo has never faced an elite fighter, let alone an all-time great. If Charlo is at his best despite the inactivity, he should be able to give Alvarez issues with his jab and boxing ability. But if Charlo isn't, and Alvarez hasn't slipped as many believe, then Canelo will have his way.



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